Week 1 College Football Picks

You can't spell Week 1 without Iowa (Or Iowa State)

Week 0 did not disappoint, unless you listened to my picks. In which case, you are most likely disappointed in me, and my 0.0 successful picks.

I’m disappointed in me, too. But look, my only regret was the Hawaii pick. I was sad to see my Florida State Seminoles lose, but, it’s hard to be that upset, Georgia Tech played a better football game and deserved to win. I hope some of you actually took them to cover, as I suggested! I did end up taking the under at 54.5 and that hit, but most of my live bets were in favor of Florida State, so, I ended up losing money on the game over all. And that’s why I don’t include FSU picks in these columns, because I acknowledge that I’m too deluded in my fandom to objectively analyze them!

We have an intriguing Week one slate – though perhaps a bit lacking in marquee “helmet games” outside of the ABC triple header. Still, there’s tons of matchups that could very well end up being exciting ball games, and I think a few picks that my allow me to avenge the embarrassment of my 0-2 start.

One note that I forgot to discuss last week: I am no longer going to be doing 12 picks per week. It was an arbitrary number I had chosen (basically, it was fun to see how my weekly record stacked up as a team’s annual record) but I began to realize that having that arbitrary requirement sometimes took time, and also led to a worse overall winning percentage. After all, it’s not like I claim any special proprietary edge, so by increasing the volume, I wasn’t necessarily increasing my winnings, nor was I necessarily helping any of you readers. I’m going to shoot for closer to 6-10 picks per week, sometimes more, sometimes less. Really, it’s going to depend on what lines are on offer and what my gut says. Now, let’s take a look at my Week 1 picks, starting with Thursday night. One note of caution: half of these picks are taking the under.

Thursday

Jax State -2.5

Jacksonville State was the first team I started a dynasty with in College Football 25. That’s not why I am picking them. Rich Rod & Jax State were 3-0 against the spread as a home favorite last year. Coastal Carolina are replacing long time QB Grayson McCall (he was injured for most of last season) and while they should be better on offense as they bring in more players fit for Tim Beck’s scheme, I’m not sure how excited I am at the prospect of former Michigan State QB Noah Kim running the show. Both of these teams have some interesting transfer additions (players who departed from blue blood schools, which could go both ways of course) but Jacksonville State seems to have done the better job re-loading. This is exemplified in the ESPN returning production rankings, where Jacksonville State is ranked 29^th, and Coastal Carolina is 114^th! That statistic helps me feel more secure in this pick, given that Coastal beat Jax State last year 30-16 at home. I think the home team wins again, and this time, that’s Jacksonville State.

Friday

FAU/Michigan State Under 47.5 Points

(This has gone down to 45.5 since I posted) What we have here are two teams not returning a ton of offensive starters, but do return most of their defensive starters. For Michigan State, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Still, it will take time for Jonathan Smith to rebuild the offense, at least more than one off season and one week. Specifically, Michigan State’s offensive line is very inexperienced, with only 31 FBS starts amongst the group. I am not saying FAU will dominate them at the line of scrimmage, but I think both defenses will have an easier time than either offense. Coach Smith did like to beat on weaker teams at Oregon State, I’m just not sure there’s enough of a skills difference here for a blowout, and I think FAU will get enough stops to be frustrating, if not competitive.

Saturday

Illinois State/Iowa Under 42.5

I don’t want to assume Iowa will be as low scoring as in previous years, with Brian Ferentz being shipped off to a farm upstate for coach’s sons. However, since 2015, Iowa has played 4 FCS opponents, and three of those four games have gone under. On the other side, Illinois State’s last two FBS games have been shutouts: 38-0 against Wisconsin in 2022, and 28-0 at Western Michigan in 2021. I only have totals for 7 of their last 9 FBS games, but all of those 7 games hit the under. They have played Iowa before: in 2015, they lost 31-14. The total for that game was 58.5, so significantly higher than this year’s total. Still, the 2015 Iowa team averaged 31 points per game – last year Iowa averaged 15 points per game. I am betting on Iowa to win big, but that probably still hits the under.

Oklahoma State -9.5

Let’s start off with reasons why this spread is below ten points: South Dakota State are reigning (repeating) FCS champions and have a 29 game winning streak. Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy (I suppose it’s proper style to refer to him that way when first mentioning him, but I expect ALL my readers to know who Mike Gundy is….HE’S A MAN! HE’S 40!) even stated this week that he expects South Dakota State to compete at a “power four level” whatever that means in the context of a single game.  Oklahoma State’s loss last year to South Alabama (in Stillwater) is probably also helping to keep this spread close. However, when we look at when South Dakota State has played ranked FBS teams this century, it’s never been very close. In 2010, they lost 17-3 against #6 Nebraska. In 2014, a 38-18 loss against #24 Missouri. And most recently, in 2016 (so, not recently) they lost 59-41 at TCU. Now – they did cover all three of those games – but the spreads were in the 20s-40s (depending on the game.) Ten points doesn’t seem like a lot for Oklahoma State and Ollie Gordon. I do expect South Dakota State to compete in this game, probably for all four quarters, but Oklahoma State grew significantly over the course of last season, and as a result they enter this season with a more experienced and settled defense, and a definitive QB1 (and Ollie Gordon, really can’t stress enough that they have Heisman candidate Ollie Gordon.) Under Gundy, Oklahoma State is 8-4 against the spread versus FCS opponents, and home field advantage will be crucial here. I’m going with Coach Mike and his team to cover.

North Dakota/Iowa State Under 51.5 Points

Iowa State are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against FCS opponents, and while I only have game totals for 11 games dating back to 2010 against FCS teams, of those 11 games, 8 went under the pre-game total. North Dakota State are 8-6 against the spread since 2009 against FBS teams, and the under has hit in 9 of their 13 games versus FBS opponents. Last time Iowa State played a team from North Dakota, in 2014, they lost at home 34-14 versus North Dakota State (Iowa State is in a much better place under Matt Campbell than they were ten years ago.) And yes, I realize I am picking both Iowa teams to hit the under!

Miami Over 27.5 Total Points

Per usual, the Miami Hurricanes enter a new season with tons of hype. This time, the hype may actually be deserved: Mario Cristobal brought in some serious studs in the transfer portal, most notably QB Cam Ward from Washington State. I can tell you I was cursing Cam for choosing Miami over Florida State a few times while watching FSU vs Georgia Tech. Anyway, I’m not sure if Miami will come away with a win in the Swamp, but I do know they averaged 31 points per game last season (28 points on the road, which would win us the bet) – and that was before they added one of the more exciting quarterbacks in the country. And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention they also added Damien Martinez from Oregon State at RB. Florida are not a bad team (despite what their fans may say) and this may be the year that Billy Napier’s project begins to succeed. If it isn’t he is probably getting fired. I think Miami hits this total.

Wyoming +6.5

Craig Bohl retired at the end of last season, and was succeeded by Defensive Coordinator Jay Sawvel. Wyoming returns six starts on offense (as does Arizona State) and seven on defense. Arizona State is actually 0-6 both straight up and against the spread in their last six games versus non conference opponents. At home, against the spread in those games, they are 0-5. That includes last year’s 29-0 shutout loss (at home) against Mountain West Fresno State (a team Wyoming beat last season.) Wyoming returns their top three rushers, and should be the more experienced team in general against a very young Arizona State team. If you’re feeling cheeky, perhaps you can even take Wyoming to win. I like them to cover.

That’s all I have for this week. I can’t wait for the games!