Week 10 College Football Picks
Week 10 College Football Picks
Hoping To Continue Last Week's Success
Howdy, everyone. Last week, I went 8-4. That brings me to 57-56 on the season, my first time being above .500 all season long. I had a pretty good week live betting as well - all in all I was able to double the balance in my FanDuel account. This will be good, because after College Football season is over, I will probably lose it all making less informed bets on NBA (I also do a lot of College Basketball betting, but I mostly just follow the KenPom predictions.) Anyway, I was really happy with my picks last week, and I was glad that I was able to end with a three pick winning streak at the end. I hope that will carry over into this week. Without further ado, below are my picks for this week.
Thursday Evening
South Alabama @ Troy Under 45.5
Troy is allowing an average of 6 points per game over the last four games. They are allowing an average of 17 points per game this season, and 18 points per game at home (they gave up 30 points in Week 1 to SF Austin, and 24 points at home to Western Kentucky.) They have one of the best defenses in FBS, and certainly one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt (probably only behind James Madison, who beat them 16-14) – while South Alabama does averages 34 points per game, they were held to 23 points at James Madison, and 20 points last week versus Louisiana. Notably, South Alabama allowed 5 sacks against Louisiana, and against James Madison (they didn’t give up any sacks in blowout wins versus ULM and Southern Miss) – that indicates to me that Troy’s defense should be able to shut down South Alabama’s offense if they can consistently get to their quarterback. This game finished 10-6 last season, and I think Troy’s defense is strong enough to keep the total low here.
Saturday Noon
Notre Dame -3
Clemson is 4-4 and they host a much better team this weekend. Can the Clemson defense shut down Audric Estime? Maybe. They only give up an average of 99 yards per game. Notre Dame beat Clemson last year (in South Bend) 35-14, and frankly I think this Clemson team is a lot worse than last season’s. Or maybe just a little bit worse. Point being, this Clemson team isn’t a huge offensive threat. They will probably keep the game close, but I think Notre Dame can beat them by at least a touchdown. Also, Sam Hartman threw for six touchdowns last year when Wake Forest hosted Clemson. I see this playing out similarly to the Miami game, or the NC State game, for Clemson. Close, but a loss to a more skilled team.
Ole Miss -3
I feel like I always get burned when I bet on Lane, and I was going to take the under on this game (still may) – but as I wrote it up, I realized that I actually sort of like Ole Miss with this line. A&M’s defense is very good, and they are holding SEC opponents to an average of 19 points a game – but, this will also be their third actual road game (they played against Arkansas at a neutral site) because A&M only has four road games this season. They are 0-2 in true road games (versus Miami and Tennessee) and frankly, the SEC teams that A&M has beat this year (Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina) are all struggling for various reasons. Ole Miss has won the last two games versus Texas A&M (that also means they lost in 2019 when they hosted the Aggies) and I’m sure they can score more points faster than A&M can. It will be close thanks to the A&M defense, but that only works for so long, and I think the Rebels will be able to exit with a lead of more than 3 points.
Florida Team Total Over 27.5
The Gators got their little butts spanked by Georgia last week, but don’t let that distract you from their winning SEC record (3-2) – and the fact that they host the Razorbacks. Arkansas has only beaten Florida one time in the last 26 years, and that was in Arkansas. Granted, there has been huge variances in how good the Gators are over the last 26 years, but the Swamp is a tough place to play, and the Razorbacks are really struggling this year. They’ve fired their offensive coordinator, and so they will perhaps be slightly different on offense, but the Gators are averaging 35 points at home, and 28 points in SEC play and also over the last four weeks. They’ve scored 29 or more points in all of their SEC wins, and I expect to see that trend continue in this game.
Saturday 3 PM
FAU -1.5
UAB is not good this season, as I have said before. They have 1 FBS win (against USF) – and they allow an average of 38 points per game. They have allowed 40+ points in each of their last two games. They have allowed 40+ points in five games already, and they have played eight games so far. FAU isn’t exactly the best team in the land either, but they are 3-1 in conference play and have easily dispatched lesser conference foes on the road, such as USF and Charlotte. I will also note – FAU recorded five sacks against Charlotte, and UAB allows about 2.6 sacks per game – I think this game could be over by half time.
Saturday 3:30 PM
Penn State Team Total Over 30.5 Points
Penn State is averaging 37 points per game over the last four games, and have surpassed this number in all but two Big Ten games: against Ohio State, and against Illinois (they scored 30) – they were on the road in both of those games, but they also historically dominate this series. Here are Penn State’s scores for the last three times they played at Maryland: 31 points, 59 points, and 66 points. James Franklin’s teams love to pick on a weaker opponent after they’ve already lost to Ohio State or Michigan. It makes perfect sense that they will score a ton of points against Maryland en route to losing to Michigan next week.
Minnesota -1.5
Illinois travels to Minnesota after a bye, but Minnesota played Michigan State last week, so that’s like half of a bye. They blew a big lead to Wisconsin, who has their backup quarterback finishing the season. Furthermore, they allow 4.2 yards per rush on average this season, and Minnesota is a run heavy team. Nebraska ran the ball 49 times and beat Illinois 20-7 – and that was when Nebraska was on the road. If Minnesota can get the run game established, they should be able to win here. I will note that Bert Bielema has not lost to Minnesota in his head coaching career, but I have witnessed a fair number of streaks being broken over my life, so, there’s a first time for everything.
James Madison -5.5
As much as I love Georgia State, I do think James Madison is the best team in the Sun Belt Conference. JMU was tested by Old Dominion last week and almost had an embarrassing loss, but they remain undefeated. Georgia State struggled against Troy earlier in the season, and James Madison was able to beat Troy in a close game. JMU only won by two last year – but I think this Georgia State team is a step below the “top” Sun Belt teams (Georgia Southern, JMU, and Troy) – if JMU shuts down the Georgia State run game as Troy did, then this game won’t be close.
Saturday Evening
Kansas +2.5
As a reward for beating Oklahoma, Kansas is still an underdog on the road against Iowa State. I sort of get it, Iowa State has won three in a row, and their only Big 12 loss is against Oklahoma. But, let’s remember who they played in those three games: TCU, Cincinnati, and Baylor. Not exactly Murderer’s Row. Kansas won by three last year, but they actually haven’t beaten Iowa State in Ames since 2008. Incidentally, that was the last time they were ranked heading into this game, and they are ranked 22nd currently. This should be a close game, and I think these two teams are actually probably at a similar level, but Kansas is slightly more proven, and is averaging 500 yards per game in Big 12 play (and 35 points per game in Big 12 play) – Iowa State will keep them to a lower total than they’re used to, but I’m not sure Iowa State can keep up with the Jayhawks.
Washington -3.5
USC is bad. They almost lost to Cal. Washington is undefeated and trying to make a case for the playoff. I suppose Pac 12 logic says that USC will win here, but reality says their defense allows 464 yards per game and 34 points per game in conference play. Washington’s defense has struggled at times this season as well, and Washington was disappointing against Arizona State and Stanford, but they are playing a USC team in a sort of free fall. While they did beat Cal, this is a team that went from playoff contender, to undefeated team with a questionable defense (after Colorado and Arizona games) – and then the Notre Dame game showed us that, honestly, the offense isn’t even that good necessarily. Look for USC to continue to not get pressure on the opposing quarterback (they haven’t done this since the Arizona game) and for Michael Penix Jr to make a serious case for the Heisman.
NC State +4.5
I really like NC State as a home dog. They just beat Clemson at home, and while Miami is better than Clemson, Tyler Van Dyke struggled last week against Virginia, and his shoulder may not be fully recovered. NC State are also a bit more luck (or disciplined) with turnovers than the Hurricanes are, and that will factor in here. I don’t think a Miami team that is 2-2 in recent weeks is necessarily a strong favorite against an NC State team that just pulled off a home upset. Dave Doeren’s teams are tough, and I’m not sure if Mario Cristobal’s Miami team is as disciplined. Their skill should get them the win, but the Wolfpack will make them work for it.
Fresno State -3
Alright, I was totally wrong about Boise vs Wyoming last week. BUT – now Boise travels to play Fresno. Boise State on the road is a different team than the one we’ve seen on the blue turf. Similarly, Fresno is undefeated at home this season, and Boise State don’t seem well-equipped to deal with all the passing that Fresno State does. Boise games are usually close this season, especially in conference, so I like the fact that this is a whole number, and a field goal win by Fresno gets us a push. That said, I think they can repeat their 7 point home victory that we saw last week against UNLV. If Fresno State’s run defense can make a few key stops, they should be able to get separation in this game.