Week 5 College Football Picks
It's Always Toughest at the Start of the Season (and the Middle, and the End)
Well, last week was another losing one. 3-5 was the record, which, I suppose, is an improvement from 1-6. But, I’m still at a losing record for the season, at 14-18. I feel a little bit better knowing this has happened in the past and I still came out on top at the end of the season. But it’s always frustrating to struggle. I would say that I feel better about this week’s picks, because I do, but, ultimately, we will never know until the games are over. 3 of the lost picks last week were within a touchdown of being wins, which is frustrating (I almost prefer being way off) - but I guess that’s also the way she goes. A wise man once told me (well, we were boys at the time, but I assume he has grown into a wise man) “you win some, you lose some.” It’s advice that has served me well.
(EDIT: 10 PM 9/26 - These picks are not necessarily made with the effects of the hurricane in mind, although having gone through them afterwards, it appears the storm is hitting Thursday night/Friday AM. It looks like a bad one. My thoughts are with everyone in the Southeast.
EDIT: 8 PM 9/27 - Liberty @ App State was canceled.)
This week’s picks are below.
Friday Night
Miami Team 1st Half -10.5
The Hurricanes have been a great team through the first few weeks of the season. It pains me to say that as a Florida State fan, but I’m not an idiot. They’re averaging 52 points per game on 605 yards per game. Granted, they haven’t played the best teams in the country, but, they haven’t really had any trouble. They have led by large margins at half time, with the exception of last week against USF, where they “only” led by a touchdown. USF unfortunately petered out in the 2nd half and UM got a 35 point win. Not sure Virginia Tech and Brent Pry are going to pack as much punch on offense as Alex Golesh’s USF team. They were down 14 points to Vanderbilt at half, and nine points to Rutgers last week at half time. I feel icky taking the Hurricanes but it seems like the right bet.
Saturday
Noon
Michigan -9.5
This will be Minnesota’s first trip to Ann Arbor since 2017 (they lost 33-10.) Tim Walz will be at this game. I believe this line is a reflection of Michigan’s lack of a passing game. However, I will note that Minnesota lost by 17 points to Iowa last week, and Iowa only threw for 62 yards. Iowa DID run for 272 yards (on 45 attempts, 6 yards per attempt) and I’m sure Michigan will do similar damage when running. They’re averaging 5.6 yards per attempt this season. They struggled against Texas – but good news, Minnesota is not Texas. Minnesota lost to North Carolina back in August, and they only scored 17 points against what we now know is a BAD North Carolina defense. I suspect turnovers and pocket pressure will be key in this match up, and I think Michigan may have an advantage in both.
BYU +3.5
This is a tricky game to pick. Baylor had some pretty embarrassing coverage errors to end the game against Colorado, but BYU had some luck on turnovers and special teams to wallop Kansas State. I’m arguing it wasn’t luck. SP+ has this as a tie, so I like BYU to lose by a field goal, or to win. Baylor’s defense is still probably pretty decent, they are 54th in SP+ rankings, while BYU is 42nd. However, if we look at quality of opponent, Baylor has only beaten Air Force and Tarleton State. BYU also has a win against an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Wyoming.) But then there is a road win against SMU, and last week’s blowout against a ranked Kansas State team. Baylor struggled against Utah’s defense and should struggle against BYU’s. The question to me seems to be – how much will BYU’s offense struggle against Baylor’s defense? I think they can keep it close.
Navy Team Total Over 30.5 Points
Navy are averaging 48 points through four weeks, including 56 points last week against Memphis. This will be their first road game of the season, but UAB has been pretty bad this season. They sort of hung around with Arkansas, but ultimately they lost by 10 and gave up 37 points. So, we just care about the points here – and UAB has allowed 30+ points to both of the FBS teams they played. Navy won 31-6 last year in Annapolis. Homefield advantage may change some things but I think Navy will have success running against a UAB team allowing 5.5 yards per attempt to FBS teams.
3 PM
Liberty -3.5 (Game canceled due to Hurricane Helene)
Here’s the deal with this one. App State is bad on defense. We got hosed last week on this one. Liberty covered last week in a come from behind win against East Carolina (after like a six or seven hour weather delay….I was following the East Carolina 24/7 Sports forum for updates on when the game would re-start, and then I fell asleep like immediately after it started.) SP+ has Liberty winning by eight points, and similar to the last game we discussed, we have a situation here where one team has a very bad run defense (App State) and one team has a fairly good run offense (Liberty, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt) and enough of a passing game to fall back on if need be. Not sure how much homefield advantage will be a factor here since we saw South Alabama come in here and win 48-14 last week. I think Liberty is better than South Alabama.
Fresno State Team Total Over 23.5 Points
A weird thing happened on Wednesday: UNLV’s quarterback Matthew Sluka entered the transfer portal because he claimed (and I believe him) that UNLV did not come through with whatever compensation had been agreed upon. Smartly, he can redshirt this year, so, he doesn’t lose any eligibility. And he got some good plays on tape! But, UNLV are in a rut now. I was tempted to take them +1.5, but I think that line may change, and anyway, they haven’t been held to such a low number in this series since 2017. Fresno State have been inconsistent on offense, but they’re averaging 36 points per game through four game, and that includes a 30-10 defeat at Michigan. UNLV have been tough on defense so far, but they’ve also played: Houston, Utah Tech, and Kansas. They’ve had turnover advantages against all these teams, Jalon Daniels threw two picks against them. I’m hoping Mikey Keene can avoid that (he did throw two picks against Michigan, and two against Sacramento State, but since then he has thrown zero in two games.) I think UNLV may be a bit awkward on offense due to their QB situation, so Fresno State will get opportunities to score here.
7 PM
Clemson 1st Half -13.5
Same play as with the Hurricanes, and as with Clemson last week. Clemson was up 45-7 at half last week, and 56-13 against Appalachian State. Stanford did come away with a win at Syracuse last week, but they are not playing Syracuse. They are playing Clemson, and it’s homecoming. I would credit Stanford’s run defense, because they held their last two opponents to 1.4 yards per attempt on average, but they also gave up 339 passing yards last week to Syracuse, and I’m sure Cade Klubnik is excited thinking about that. It’s a skill gap thing.
10 PM
Washington State @ Boise State Over 63.5
Both teams have average total scores way over this number so far. Washington State’s average total is 75 points, while Boise State’s games have averaged 81 points per game. 63.5 is still a high number, but both teams have some explosive play capability, and Boise State has Ashton Jeanty. SP+ and Sagarin’s predictions both have this hitting the over, granted those have failed us in the past. Still, I don’t think we will see a ton of defense on that blue field Saturday night.