Last week we broke the losing streak! We finished at 6-4, but we’re still below .500 for the season: 26-31. I’m confident we can continue our winning ways and end up above .500 for the season. We’re starting to get a stronger understanding of each team each week, and while that advantages the sports books - we also have the option of not betting on games if we don’t like the lines being offered! This week, I seem to mostly be picking G5 games, but we have a few P4 games in the assortment. Either way, the schedule is full of interesting games, just like last week! I didn’t pick Georgia/Texas, but I will tell you I think Texas is the better team and will win. I’m just not sure if Quinn Ewers is 100% yet, and you know I get scared about injuries! With that said, let’s take a look at the picks for this week.
Thursday Night
Marshall -9.5
This is a bit of a big spread, but Marshall are actually 5-1 against the spread, while Georgia State is 1-4. Marshall did collapse late on the road at Georgia Southern last week, and Charles Huff is getting into must win territory if he wants to keep his job. Georgia State, meanwhile, lost their last two and now starts a four game road stretch. Marshall is 3-0 at home this season, and won here in 2022 by five points. A key determinant in this game should be that Marshall has been running the ball well this season (averaging 5.4 yards per attempt/202 yards per game) whereas Georgia State has allowed 200+ yards of rushing in each of their first two Sun Belt games. Georgia State has also struggled to run the ball themselves in conference play, with less than 100 yards rushing combing over the last two games. Marshall beat App State on the road by 15 points, I think they can win by 10 at home against another struggling team, Georgia State.
Friday Night
Fresno State @ Nevada Over 50.5 Points
Fresno State was competitive against Washington State but isn’t doing much to defeat the accusations that they are mid. Nevada are also mid, but they were projected to be one of the worst teams in FBS (or at least, they were replacing a lot of players.) They came away with a win against Oregon State last week, and are actually 5-2 against the spread (3-4 in reality.) Nevada’s QB, Brendon Lewis, is also featured in their run game, similar to UNLV, which kicked Fresno State’s ass a few weeks ago. Nevada is allowing 35 points per game in conference play, whereas Fresno State is allowing 40 points per game in conference play. Turnovers have been a factor for both teams – Nevada’s turnover margin against the Beavers was plus four! And Fresno State’s turnover margin against UNLV was minus four. Nevada’s pass defense is also suspicious, so this could be a chance for Mikey Keene and Fresno State to have more success passing than they have been having in recent weeks. Either way, I think this game will feature plenty of back and forth between two teams that have a lot to work on.
Saturday
Noon Slate
Miami Team Total Over 33.5
This is basically a bet that Cam Ward will throw/run for several touchdowns. Miami’s offense is averaging 48 points per game this year, and 584 yards per game. In conference play, that goes down to 39 points per game and 542 yards per game. Granted, both of their two ACC games have gone down to the last minute, sometimes even the last play. That portends some things – but it’s also shown that Cam Ward can bail Miami out because he is just that good. Miami is also welcoming offensive lineman Jalen Rivers back after he missed five games with an injury. I am not betting on Miami to win in Louisville (I think they will, but, two close wins in row to start conference play makes me think that we may see some Miami screw ups ahead) but I’m betting on Cam Ward to keep them in the game. Louisville lost to SMU 34-27, and that was probably the best offense they have faced (they also lost to Notre Dame 31-24.) I am curious to see what Cam can do, and I think he will score.
Louisiana -4.5
Louisiana-Lafayette travels to Coastal Carolina for this game. Coastal’s last three games have been similar: they’ve allowed a lot of points! Against Old Dominion, they scored more than they allowed, so it was fine. But against Virginia and James Madison they lost by double digits (32 points against James Madison, a bit more than just double digits.) They’re allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt over the last four games, and while the Ragin Cajun’s don’t have the best offense in the country, they have been able to average 218 rushing yards on the road this season, and 187 rushing yards per game overall. Louisiana’s defense has also held opponents to less than 14 points on three occasions but, those occasions were against Grambling State (FCS), Kennesaw State, and Southern Miss. Last time these teams played, it was during Covid, and Coastal won 30-27. The year before that? Louisiana traveled to Myrtle Beach and won 48-7. I like Louisiana to handle Coastal in this one.
12:45
South Carolina +2.5
I would be worried if I were Oklahoma. They haven’t cracked 300 yards since the Tulane game, and aside from South Carolina and Maine, they still have to play Ole Miss, Mizzou, Bama, and LSU. They have no solution at QB – Michael Hawkins is athletic but still needs time to develop, and whatever advantages they may have on defense are sort of nullified by having such an inconsequential offense. Plus, basically all of their receivers are injured. South Carolina still have a tough task to go on the road and cover this small number against Oklahoma, but they just went to Tuscaloosa and covered this total against Alabama, a much better team than Oklahoma. I will note that Kentucky held South Carolina to 252 yards of offense and the Gamecocks still won 31-6. Oklahoma will need to win the turnover battle to have a chance, but, that’s not a guarantee (they didn’t do this against Tennessee or Texas) – and South Carolina arguably have the advantage on the margins and in special teams, because of Beamer Ball. If you compare Oklahoma’s offensive stats to Kentucky, they’re very similar (Kentucky’s marginally better on offense) – I think this game could be similar (but likely will be closer, because every game is different.)
3:30 Slate
USF -13.5
This is my usual “Trent Dilfer sucks” play – but with some added wrinkles. We know USF under Alex Golesh SHOULD be scoring a ton, they averaged 32 points per game last year – but this year that number is down to 24. Is that number affected by the strength of schedule? I argue so – their four losses were against two potentially playoff teams (Alabama and Miami) – and then two of the strongest teams in their conference (Tulane and Memphis.) We have only seen USF play lower caliber opponents twice this season – against Southern Miss (a 49-24 victory) and against Bethune Cookman (a 48-3 victory.) UAB blew out USF last year, 56-35 (I vaguely recall betting on USF in that game, and losing.) Similarly, in those three games, the Bulls ran the ball really well, but they have been completely shut down by the last three defenses they played. So a UAB team that allows 258 rushing yards per game seems like a good opponent to get the Bulls back on track. USF will be motivated to avenge that game, and to win during their Homecoming Week. UAB seems to not be motivated to do anything, as seen by their instant capitulation last week against Army (they gave up a touchdown within 90 seconds of the game starting, and by end of the first quarter they were down 20-3.) They are allowing an average of 48 points per game over the last four weeks, and in three conference games they are allowing 52 points per game! Look for USF to win as they begin an “easier” stretch of their schedule (not really true, they still play Navy in a few weeks!)
Houston +6.5
Kansas is 0-6 against the spread this season, and also, just 1-5. They have mostly lost in close games, and have had a tough schedule, but they also have a recent loss to TCU, a team that got blown out by their upcoming opponent Houston. Houston’s offense has been terrible all season (though the game against TCU was a welcome change, as Houston scored 30 points and held TCU to under 300 yards of offense.) But Houston has been shut out twice already and is only averaging 14 points per game all season. Still, Kansas seems unable to beat an FBS team so far, and unable to close out a close game. I feel confident that Houston (whose defense is arguably better than the Kansas defense) can keep things close in a game between two bad teams.
4 PM
San Jose State -11.5
Wyoming, 1-5 against the spread, have given up 40+ points in their two away games (at Arizona State and at North Texas.) San Jose State hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency, and Wyoming has improved on paper in their last two games (just a reflection of playing bad teams, Air Force and San Diego State) but San Jose State’s running game has been improving in recent weeks, complementing their passing game which has been effective all season. Wyoming has not fared well against pass happy teams – North Texas and BYU both had 300+ passing yards on 35+ attempts, and both teams beat Wyoming handily. In recent weeks, San Jose State has been throwing the ball 40+ times – I am confident they can significantly “out gun” Wyoming in the passing game, and I am pretty certain their inconsistent defense will hold up against a weak Wyoming offense (averaging 264 yards per game, 3.1 yards per rush, and 48% completion percentage.)
James Madison -9.5
This seems similar to last week’s James Madison game! Although, Georgia Southern is 4-1-1 against the spread, and JMU is 4-2. Still, I think Georgia Southern has plenty reasons of concern going into this game. For one, Georgia Southern tends to pass the ball a lot. JMU has held five out of six opponents to under 200 passing yards (the lone exception being UNC, when they beat UNC 70-50, in a very weird game.) Georgia Southern came back against Marshall from a 16-3 half time deficit – they will not be able to do that against James Madison, homefield advantage or no. Another thing to point out, related to the passing game – Georgia Southern has allowed 17 sacks already this season (five in the game against Marshall) – and have struggled running the ball in competitive situations. JMU lost to a good ULM team, but otherwise they are still one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. Georgia Southern’s four wins are against lesser opposition, whereas their two losses are against playoff contenders – Ole Miss and Boise State. Maybe Ole Miss is not a contender after losing to LSU, but, the point is: JMU is good G5 program, and should handle Georgia Southern, a middle of the pack one.
Evening Games
7:30
Iowa @ Michigan State Over 40.5 Points
Iowa games have hit the over five out of six times so far this year. Crazy what can happen when you fire your incompetent son as offensive coordinator and start scoring points. I’m expecting Iowa to control this game and win comfortably. If Michigan State scores two touchdowns, I would think that would be enough to get us to our total. Michigan State are coming off a bye, but lost 31-10 to Oregon and 38-7 to Ohio State in their two games before the bye. Their Big 10 games this year have an average total of 46, whereas Iowa’s conference games have an average total of 48 points this year. Additionally, this was a 26-16 game last year, and has hit the over in the last two editions. 40.5 seems too low for this year’s Iowa.