First things first: if you tailed my bets last week, I am sorry. They stank! The under for Arizona State/Texas State hit (by half a point!) Then the fun ended. North Texas did NOT cover against Texas Tech, FIU did NOT compete with FAU, and Oregon figured things out in a blow out win versus Oregon State. Even Wyoming managed to get one over me. Still, in defeat, you get an opportunity to learn from your mistakes. I have tried to dig a bit deeper in finding picks this week - basically, more team totals for teams with good offenses. There are some exciting match ups this week (I say that every week, I love college football!) And I actually have picks for some nationally televised games, not trash like Coastal Carolina vs Temple. Well, I have a pick for Coastal Carolina, but, that game against Virginia should be interesting. Without further ado, picks are below.
Thursday Evening
South Alabama @ App State Over 64.5
The obvious note to mention here is how South Alabama put up 87 points against an (apparently not very good) FCS team. But don’t be fooled – they’re 0-2 against FBS teams, allowed 446 passing yards against North Texas, and 200 rushing yards from Ohio. South Alabama is 1-7 all time versus App State, and last time they went to Boone they lost 31-7. Still, the Ohio game was with a backup QB, and they’ve certainly been able to score with Gio Lopez playing QB. App State has an outlier game of their own: Clemson curb stomped them 66-20. They came back from a 16-point deficit last week at East Carolina, and Joey Aguilar threw for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns. I think App State should be able to score easily against South Alabama’s defense – and I think South Alabama can score enough as well to get us over this total. Sagarin’s simulations have this total ranging from 67-78, with an average of 70 points. I think we’ll see some points.
Saturday
Noon
Clemson First Half -10.5
NC State went into half time tied with FCS Western Carolina, down 20-3 against Tennessee, and down 17-6 against Louisiana Tech. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say they will be down by 11 or more against a Clemson team that just scored 56 points in one half. Also, they are coming off of a bye, whereas NC State come into this away game with plenty of questions as freshman QB CJ Bailey takes over for an injured Grayson McCall. McCall struggled in the first few games of the season, but as a freshman, Bailey may have a tough go of at in Death Valley in his first start. NC State won this game last year as well, so I feel that Dabo will have even more motivation for his players.
Florida @ Mississippi State Under 57.5
I’m not saying Mississippi State will win. In fact, they just lost to Toledo at home. They have the worst run defense in the SEC. Last week, Texas A&M had the second worst run defense in the SEC. Florida ran for 52 yards last week, they rushed 25 times. DJ Lagway shows plenty of potential but he is young and struggled against A&M, throwing two interceptions. Billy Napier seems cursed at Florida, and I think they are the better team and SHOULD win this game but more impotantly: I think it will be a stupid and close game. Florida’s weird two QB situation may continue to cause them to struggle against SEC defenses. This should be a messy game between two bad offenses, and even if it becomes a blow out for UF (who are probably the more talented team) - it’s not clear they will put up 40 points against an SEC team, as Toledo did last week here.
West Virginia -2.5
UNLV covered this number last week in Kansas City, winning 23-20. West Virginia’s two losses are totally respectable: Penn State, and what seems to be a pretty good Pitt team. Jalon Daniel’s has grown 6 interceptions (and three touchdowns.) Bud Elliott asked a great question: can he read a defense? West Virginia had five sacks against Pitt, and are 5-1 at home in this series against Kansas. I’m not convinced Kansas has things figured out at quarterback, and I think West Virginia can beat a replacement level Big 12 team at home by a field goal.
2 PM
Coastal Carolina +3.5
An undefeated home team as a +3 dog? I’ll take it! Coastal and Virginia haven’t played before, they were scheduled in 2022 but the game was postponed after the shooting at UVA. Virginia has a 31-30 win against Wake Forest, where they gave up over 400 passing yards, and last week they blew a 13-7 half time lead to a visiting Maryland team to lost 27-13. Coastal didn’t cover against Temple on the road, but should be able to compete at home against this Virginia team. Sagarin has Coastal as a two point favorite in his simulations, and I like them at +3.5.
3:30
USC Team Total Over 26.5 Points
It’s always going to be tough to come into Ann Arbor and play. However, USC average 40+ points per game in two years under Lincoln Riley. In fact, they’ve only scored fewer than 27 points in four games during Riley’s tenure: against Oregon State in 2022, against Utah in 2022 in the Pac-12 Championship, and against Notre Dame and UCLA last year. This year, they’re averaging 38 points per game in two games. They’re coming off a bye week into this game, so I suspect that should give them some time to figure things out even more on offense (where, again, they are averaging 38 points per game.) Michigan’s QB issues could also mean more time of possession for USC.
Arkansas Team Total Over 27.5 Points
The Razorbacks have scored 30+ points in their two games against FBS opponents, they scored 70 points against an FCS team. On the other hand, Auburn’s opponents are averaging 14 points a game. Cal only needed three touchdowns to beat them, but there was also a five turnover differential in Cal’s favor. Arkansas scored 41 points last time they went to Jordan-Hare. Bobby Petrino has their run game humming, and they played very well against a highly ranked Oklahoma State team in an overtime loss. Auburn has not necessarily impressed, and win or not, I think Arkansas can score four touchdowns.
6 PM
Liberty -6.5
Liberty is an unremarkable 3-0. Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley seem to be an effective pairing once again. Liberty and East Carolina have never played before, and while East Carolina’s run defense has been tough so far, limiting opposing teams to 2.1 yards per rush, Liberty has not fared that poorly running the ball since 2022 when they played in Fayetteville against Arkansas. Plus, last year they held teams to 3.4 yards per rush and still lost 10 games. Liberty is undefeated in Lynchburg in their last ten games, and East Carolina hasn’t shown any reason to think they will pull off an upset on the road.